Quail Hollow Club has hosted a multitude of big golf events, including the PGA Tour’s now-called Truist Championship annually (except for this year, of course), the 2022 Presidents Cup and the 2017 PGA Championship. So, there’s no shortage of past history to digest when it comes to handicapping the 156-player field for the 107th PGA Championship.
Fresh off winning a green jacket and completing the career Grand Slam, Rory McIlroy heads to Quail Hollow, a place where he’s won four times, including twice since an extensive redesign prior to that 2017 PGA, where McIlroy was T-22.
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, a winner recently at the Byron Nelson (and in dominating fashion), is the obvious main challenger to McIlroy. But how do the contenders look behind that?
Quail Hollow, of course, is a big ballpark, so driving distance, clubhead speed and even long-iron play are all hugely important. No wonder McIlroy plays so well there. And with the 2017 PGA being eight years ago, it might be better to look at results from just this past year at Valhalla, a very similar test to Quail. Also, don’t fret if a guy you like played poorly at this year’s Truist as Philadelphia Cricket Club is such a starkly different course.
As you may have gathered, McIlroy leads this year’s PGA power rankings with Scheffler a close second. But here’s how I have things shanking out behind that:
1. Rory McIlroy: Don’t overthink it. “Quail Man” is the Tour’s leader off the tee and third in driving distance while also a top-10 scrambler this season. Good to see him keep his Masters momentum in Philly. Has only finished worse than T-16 at Quail once since the redesign. That span includes two wins, most recently last year’s five-shot romp.
2. Scottie Scheffler: Though McIlroy has won more of late, Scheffler still tops DataGolf’s trend table right now. Tee to green, he’s ranked first, just above McIlroy, while he’s No. 1 on Tour in scrambling and bogey avoidance.
3. Bryson DeChambeau: Without comparative stats to the Tour guys, it’s hard to fully gauge DeChambeau this week. But based on what we saw at the Masters and in his recent LIV starts, DeChambeau’s power brand is tough to beat. Went back to his old irons, too, and produced a win in Korea.
4. Jon Rahm: Gut feeling is that Rahm breaks out this week. He’s still not finished outside the top 10 in a LIV event and he showed a lot of promise in his Masters T-4, though not many people seemed to pay attention. Quail fits right into his skillset.
5. Justin Thomas: Was all over him entering Masters and he waited until the next week to win (RBC Heritage). Hasn’t had his best season off the tee, but he’s still the Tour’s leader in birdies or better. T-26 or better in four starts at Quail since winning the PGA, though no top-10s.
6. Shane Lowry: Not overly long, but a great long-iron player. And if it weren’t for a disastrous weekend at Augusta, he’d be riding a long streak of top-20s, capped by what should be a very high finish at Truist (perhaps even a win).
7. Xander Schauffele: The driver continues to be just a little off, though his approach play has helped limit the damage. T-8 at Masters marked his fifth straight top-10 in a major. He’ll be a factor again, but I have him just a notch below the likes of Rory and Scottie.
8. Sepp Straka: Hasn’t popped in majors yet (just two top-10s), but he was T-8 last year at Quail, and while he lacks the firepower of these other top-10 guys, he’s one of the best iron players in the world (second in strokes gained approach) and top-5 on Tour in scoring.
9. Keith Mitchell: Loved Mitchell here even before Truist. He’s top 10 in strokes gained off the tee, driving distance, clubhead speed, scoring and a few other important metrics. And he’s obviously trending results-wise, too.
10. Patrick Cantlay: Starting to drive and ball-strike the cover off the ball; he should move inside the top 10 in strokes gained tee to green after Truist. His record at Quail is OK, and he only possesses five career major top-10s, but he’s got to buck the trend sometime. Scrambling is a big worry of mine, otherwise he’d be top five.
Nos. 11-20
11. Daniel Berger: Has been so good since missing a couple cuts early this year. That run includes a couple top-3s and a T-21 at the Masters in his first major start in a while. Top 10 in strokes gained tee to green and scoring, and top 5 in approaches from 200-225 yards.
12. Collin Morikawa: We know Morikawa is a world-class ball-striker (third on Tour in strokes gained tee to green) and he’s been one of the hottest players on Tour this year. My one concern is his bunker player; that is a sneaky metric at Quail.
13. Patrick Reed: Solo third at Masters validates the success he’s had on LIV. Also owns three top-8s at Quail since the redesign, including a T-2 at the 2017 PGA.
14. Hideki Matsuyama: Hasn’t notched a top-10 since winning at Kapalua, and it’s largely due to the putter. Also has barely played – and played well – at Quail since contending at the 2017 PGA. Still, his iron play and short game (among the best on Tour) has him in the conversation.
15. Joaquin Niemann: For as great as he’s been on LIV this year with three wins, there’s still the glaring concern that he owns just one top-20 in majors in his career. Perhaps playing on a regular Tour layout will help; Niemann was T-18 in his last Quail appearance in 2021.
16. Ludvig Åberg: Made me eat crow at Masters with a solo seventh, but still not going to be super high on him at Quail, where he will be debuting. That Masters finish remains his only top-10 in months, and it’s a crazy how he’s outside the top 100 in scoring. All that said, elite driver of the golf ball keeps him in top 20.
17. Min Woo Lee: Another Quail first-timer. Tons if firepower, but the iron play (barely top 150 on Tour on approach) will likely continue to hold him back in majors.
18. Jordan Spieth: Could we get two straight majors where the career slam in completed? Spieth is right around the top 20 on Tour tee to green and in scoring. Long-iron play is a weakness, as is his Quail track record (nothing better than T-28 in three starts since re-do). But there’s no doubt he’s trending massively.
19. Tyrrell Hatton: Owns just one top-10 in majors since the end of 2019, but he also has nine top-30s during that span. He probably doesn’t have the length to win at Quail, but he’s not missing the cut either.
20. Bud Cauley: Has cooled a touch since three straight top-6s earlier this spring, but he’s still third in scoring on Tour, is an elite bunker player, strong iron game – I could go on and on. This is a big step, and he doesn’t have a ton of major experience, but a couple top-40s in past PGAs doesn’t hurt.
Nos. 21-30
21. Viktor Hovland: Has back-to-back top-3s in PGAs and was T-3 at Quail a few years back. Seems to have his swing mostly back, too. He’s No. 1 in Tour in approaches from 175-200 yards. But that hasn’t been the issue for a while, in my opinion. The real reason for Hovland’s resurgence of late is with the putter and around the greens.
22. Corey Conners: Statistically, hasn’t had the ball-striking seasons we’re used to, but you can’t argue with five top-8s this season, including at the Masters. Also owns two straight top-13s at Quail.
23. David Puig: Purely an upside play as he bombs it and can make birdies.
24. Brooks Koepka: Purely a resumé play. Putted awful en route to missing the cut at Augusta, which spoiled a great two days of ball-striking. Can’t see a relatively healthy Koepka, who has gone seven majors now without a top-10, playing that poorly at a PGA, a championship he’s won three times.
25. Russell Henley: Who else was burned by Russ at the Masters? Good news is he won’t cost you as much here. Doesn’t hit it long enough to win here, but a T-10 last year at Quail shows he can at least get you a top-20.
26. Tommy Fleetwood: Three straight top-15s at Quail is promising, as are his nine top-20s in his last 13 majors starts.
27. J.J. Spaun: Glad to see him rebound on approach after a couple off weeks. He’s still a top-10 iron player on Tour and owns a couple top-30 at Quail.
28. Maverick McNealy: Lots of upside here. Sandwiched a T-32 at the Masters with T-3 showings on Tour. Been solid across the board this season, though scrambling and bunker play will be what costs him if he doesn’t contend.
29. Eugenio Chacarra: He’s on a roll on the DP World Tour, and if you’ve seen him hit the ball, it’s easy to see why. He’s played in just one major, but aside from the inexperience, physically he has what it takes to top-20.
30. Michael Kim: Doesn’t make bogeys, largely due to his great short game, and he’s sneaky long and just outside the top 10 in strokes tee to green. He was also seventh in his last trip to Quail in 2023. Important to note: He said he tweaked his back at Truist, where he withdrew, so keep an eye on that. This ranking somewhat reflects the injury concern.
Nos. 31-40
31. Dean Burmester: LIV bomber hasn’t notched a top-10 on that circuit since early March, though his game seems to fit Quail. He was T-12 at Valhalla last year.
32. Kevin Yu: Top 10 on Tour in strokes gained off the tee and top 20 on approach, but yet to make a major cut and will be seeing Quail for the first time.
33. Si Woo Kim: Strong in some of the secondary metrics, like second in approaches from 200-225 yards and top 20 in sand saves. T-16 last year at Quail.
34. Gary Woodland: Second on Tour in clubhead speed and top 10 in driving distance, and a recent T-2 in Houston shows that he’s starting to find his form again post-brain surgery. Was fifth at Quail in 2021; that guy could very well show up.
35. Wyndham Clark: Has three MCs and no top-30s in majors since winning his U.S. Open. He’s probably not a superstar, but his speed and birdie-making ability will keep him around the top 30 at Quail, where by the way he won in 2023.
36. Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen: Probably should be much higher as he’s sixth on DataGolf’s trend table as he’s torn up DP World Tour competition.
37. Taylor Pendrith: Top 5 in strokes gained off the tee and T-10 last year at Quail. Just not going blow you away with his short game.
38. Cameron Smith: Shot 75-82 at 2017 PGA to finish among the bottom tour pros and hasn’t played Quail since. The Masters MC adds to the alarm. He’s notched back-to-back top-10s on LIV, but his struggles off the tee won’t help him here.
39. Akshay Bhatia: Top 50 in two straight trips to Quail, and he continues to get more comfortable in major championships. Playing a PGA in his home state will inspire him. Wish his scoring numbers were better, though.
40. Rico Hoey: From an average driver to the world’s greatest driver in some circles (seventh in strokes gained off the tee). When Hoey putts well, he contends. That’s the risk you take.
Nos. 41-50
41. Ryan Gerard: He ranked nearly top 10 in my model thanks largely to be top 10 in scoring, top 25 in scrambling and top 40 off the tee. Nearly won in San Antonio.
42. Kurt Kitayama: Another who was high in the model, though other than his T-5 at the Nelson just hasn’t played very well. Fourth on Tour in driving distance doesn’t hurt.
43. Lee Hodges: He’s starting to string together MCs, but I think Quail gets him back on track. He cracked the top 25 last year there. He’s top 15 on Tour in scoring and doesn’t make a ton of bogeys.
44. Sami Valimaki: Big Sami rolls his rock and is top 15 in strokes gained approach. Has racked up some top-20s of late.
45. Sungjae Im: Horse for the course at Quail with back-to-back top-10s. He’s struggled with his iron play all year, but he’s still top 25 off the tee even with his lack of distance.
46. Stephan Jaeger: Thought he’d do better than T-52 at Masters, but it wasn’t terrible. If he could just drive it better (almost outside top 150 off the tee), I really do think he could be a top-25 player in the world. Top-30s in two straight Quail trips shows he can overcome at least there.
47. Keegan Bradley: Sixth in strokes gained tee to green is no surprise. He’s been a top-20 machine, both this year and at Quail. Not great from the sand and obviously the putter has always hindered him.
48. Seamus Power: Don’t let the name fool you; he’s not very long. But he does own four top-30s at Quail in his last five starts.
49. Nicolai Hojgaard: He’s missing cuts, but it’s been all short game and putting. He still bombs it and will drive it well at Quail.
50. Thomas Detry: Three top-15s in his last five majors, including last year’s T-4 at Valhalla. Outside the top 100 in strokes gained approach, but fairly solid otherwise.
Nos. 51-60
51. Andrew Novak
52. Ben An
53. Erik van Rooyen
54. Robert MacIntyre
55. Thorbjorn Olesen
56. Davis Thompson
57. Taylor Moore
58. Jake Knapp
59. Sam Stevens
60. Sergio Garcia
Nos. 61-70
61. Michael Thorbjornsen
62. Niklas Norgaard
63. Ryo Hisatsune
64. Ben Griffin
65. Jason Day
66. Lucas Glover
67. Matt Wallace
68. Harry Hall
69. Denny McCarthy
70. Brian Harman
Nos. 71-80
71. Sam Burns
72. Tom McKibbin
73. Eric Cole
74. Will Zalatoris
75. Jacob Bridgeman
76. Adam Scott
77. Patrick Fishburn
78. Tom Hoge
79. Patrick Rodgers
80. Matt McCarty
Nos. 81-90
81. Karl Vilips
82. Tony Finau
83. Jhonattan Vegas
84. Aaron Rai
85. Justin Rose
86. Max McGreevy
87. Nick Taylor
88. Harris English
89. Joe Highsmith
90. Alex Noren
Nos. 91-100
91. Max Greyserman
92. Johnny Keefer
93. Rasmus Hojgaard
94. Nico Echavarria
95. Matt Fitzpatrick
96. Tom Kim
97. Laurie Canter
98. Chris Kirk
99. Takumi Kanaya
100. Rickie Fowler
Nos. 101-110
101. Richard Bland
102. Keita Nakajima
103. Austin Eckroat
104. Max Homa
105. J.T. Poston
106. Adam Hadwin
107. Justin Lower
108. Sahith Theegala
109. Garrick Higgo
110. Dustin Johnson
Nos. 111-120
111. Nick Dunlap
112. Mac Hughes
113. John Parry
114. Cameron Young
115. Davis Riley
116. Daniel Van Tonder
117. Phil Mickelson
118. Cam Davis
119. Patton Kizzire
120. Marco Penge
Nos. 121-130
121. Brian Campbell
122. Beau Hossler
123. John Catlin
124. Matthieu Pavon
125. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
126. Thriston Lawrence
127. Elvis Smylie
128. Jimmy Walker
129. Rafa Campos
130. Padraig Harrington
Nos. 131-136
131. Martin Kaymer
132. Luke Donald
133. Jason Dufner
134. Vijay Singh
135. Shaun Micheel
Note: Still one spot TBD
CLUB PRO POWER RANKINGS
1. Tyler Collet
2. Michael Block
3. Andre Chi
4. Larkin Gross
5. Timothy Wiseman
6. Michael Kartrude
7. Jesse Droemer
8. Nic Ishee
9. Tom Johnson
10. John Somers
11. Ryan Lenahan
12. Greg Koch
13. Brandon Bingaman
14. Bobby Gates
15. Eric Steger
16. Brian Bergstol
17. Dylan Newman
18. Rupe Taylor
19. Justin Hicks
20. Bob Sowards
