Kris Bubic Statcast analysis and breakdown

\n\n”,”providerName”:”Twitter”,”providerUrl”:”https://twitter.com”,”thumbnail_url”:null,”type”:”oembed”,”width”:550,”contentType”:”rich”},{“__typename”:”Markdown”,”content”:”There’s another layer of deception at play here, too. Typically, “rising” fastballs are thrown by pitchers with over-the-top arm angles, who have an easier time putting backspin on the baseball. But Bubic induces rise from a low arm slot, at 38°. Standing at six-foot-three, his release height (5.69 ft.) is actually a tick beneath the league average.\n\n“To be able to get the above-average carry from that below-average release point has helped the angle be flat, even at 92, 93 (miles per hour),” Bubic told MLB.com Royals beat reporter Anne Rogers in April. “The swings still tell me that guys are behind it, not squaring it up, not seeing it.””,”type”:”text”},{“__typename”:”Video”,”contentDate”:”2025-05-08T18:16:03.984Z”,”preferredPlaybackScenarioURL({\”preferredPlaybacks\”:\”mp4AvcPlayback\”})”:”https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2025/2025-05/08/ebb2657b-9bb6545a-f9296fd2-csvm-diamondgcp-asset-4000K.mp4″,”type”:”video”,”description”:”Kris Bubic strikes out Miguel Vargas swinging on a fastball, recording the first out in the top of the 1st inning”,”displayAsVideoGif”:false,”duration”:”00:00:07″,”slug”:”miguel-vargas-strikes-out-swinging-tzfy8i”,”tags”:[{“__typename”:”InternalTag”,”slug”:”season-2025″,”title”:”Season 2025″,”type”:”season”},{“__typename”:”GameTag”},{“__typename”:”PersonTag”,”slug”:”playerid-663460″,”title”:”Kris Bubic”,”person”:{“__ref”:”Person:663460″},”type”:”player”},{“__typename”:”TeamTag”,”slug”:”teamid-118″,”title”:”Kansas City Royals”,”team”:{“__ref”:”Team:118″},”type”:”team”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”highlight”,”title”:”highlight”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”in-game-highlight”,”title”:”in-game highlight”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”game-action-tracking”,”title”:”game action tracking”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”game-story-highlight”,”title”:”Game story highlight”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”pitching”,”title”:”pitching”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”sporty-cc”,”title”:”Sporty CC”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”fan-duel”,”title”:”Fan Duel”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”imagen-feed”,”title”:”Imagen feed”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”international-feed”,”title”:”International Partner feed”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”eclat-feed”,”title”:”Eclat feed”,”type”:”taxonomy”}],”thumbnail”:{“__typename”:”Thumbnail”,”templateUrl”:”https://img.mlbstatic.com/mlb-images/image/upload/{formatInstructions}/mlb/litstghrdglczxf9pnjf”},”title”:”Kris Bubic strikes out Miguel Vargas”,”relativeSiteUrl”:”/video/miguel-vargas-strikes-out-swinging-tzfy8i”},{“__typename”:”Markdown”,”content”:”That wasn’t the case three years ago, when Bubic’s four-seamer posted a -31 Run Value — by that metric, the least-valuable pitch in baseball. Batters hit .348 against the pitch. That’s on par with their slugging percentage (.361) against Bubic’s four-seamer this season.”,”type”:”text”},{“__typename”:”Markdown”,”content”:”**Bubic’s 4-seamer, 2022 vs. 2025**\n\n**2022:** 91.9 mph / 2,134 RPM / 16.5\” induced rise / 7.7\” arm-side run \n**2025:** 92.3 mph / 2,404 RPM / 18.5\” induced rise / 4.9\” arm-side run\n\nOften, a shape change stems from a grip change — as we’ll see later with Bubic’s changeup. But Bubic has maintained a standard four-seam grip with his fastball. He credits heightened “intent” behind every pitch, as well as improved health, for the renaissance.\n\n“Going through 12+ months of elbow rehab has allowed me to put a bit of cleaner spin on the ball, because my elbow feels better and is probably a little bit stronger than it was previously,” Bubic said in April. “My theory is, I’m able to better apply force to the baseball and spin it a little better.””,”type”:”text”},{“__typename”:”Markdown”,”content”:”### Better secondary offerings\n\nAdded spin helped Bubic develop an elite fastball. The opposite is true with regards to his changeup — killing spin created a pitch with more drop.”,”type”:”text”},{“__typename”:”Image”,”caption”:null,”contextualCaption”:null,”contextualAspectRatio”:”raw”,”credit”:null,”contentType”:null,”format”:”jpg”,”templateUrl”:”https://img.mlbstatic.com/mlb-images/image/upload/{formatInstructions}/mlb/kujobgxsgqfahbrwhykp”,”type”:”image”},{“__typename”:”Markdown”,”content”:”“I used to throw a changeup on the four-seams,” Bubic said. “It was kind of feast or famine. You get a guy way out in front, but it’s a hard pitch to land in the zone because it just ends up being a slow fastball.”\n\nWe can see what Bubic is talking about by looking at his pitch movement charts for 2022 and 2025. Three years ago, there was little movement differential between his four-seamer and changeup — just an 11 mph velocity gap between the two pitches. Bubic, in his words, was just trying to “pull the strings” to fool hitters. The green circle shows the movement on Bubic’s changeup; the red circle is his four-seamer.”,”type”:”text”},{“__typename”:”Image”,”caption”:null,”contextualCaption”:null,”contextualAspectRatio”:”raw”,”credit”:null,”contentType”:null,”format”:”jpg”,”templateUrl”:”https://img.mlbstatic.com/mlb-images/image/upload/{formatInstructions}/mlb/wi60hgp2xcmim7er7kzd”,”type”:”image”},{“__typename”:”Markdown”,”content”:”Notice the sizable amount of separation between the two pitches this year — a stark difference from ’22. As a result of a grip change, Bubic’s changeup now drops 4.4 inches more than comparable changeups, thrown at similar velocity and release point.\n\n“Having more depth than it has in the past, it’s gonna be a more consistent weapon,” Bubic said. “Especially if the fastball has the life that it has, pairing the changeup off of that, riding that pair.””,”type”:”text”},{“__typename”:”OEmbed”,”html”:”

Kris Bubic, Dirty 87mph Changeup. 👌

9th K pic.twitter.com/JFn3itWNqM

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 14, 2025

\n\n\n”,”providerName”:”Twitter”,”providerUrl”:”https://twitter.com”,”thumbnail_url”:null,”type”:”oembed”,”width”:550,”contentType”:”rich”},{“__typename”:”Markdown”,”content”:”The fastball/changeup pairing is only a piece of the puzzle: Against left-handed hitters, Bubic throws his changeup just 2% of the time, instead turning to a pair of new breaking balls. He developed a slider in ‘23, first threw a sweeper in ‘24, and is now using both pitches this season, completely shelving his curveball. With a diverse five-pitch mix (he throws a sinker, too), Bubic can make smarter, platoon-based pitch decisions, which he couldn’t do with a limiting three-pitch mix across his first three MLB seasons.\n\nThat’s helped unlock another level of dominance. Lefties have gone from a .372 BA/.611 SLG combination against Bubic in ’22 to a .222 BA/.333 SLG line through nine starts in ’25.”,”type”:”text”},{“__typename”:”Video”,”contentDate”:”2025-05-08T18:10:00Z”,”preferredPlaybackScenarioURL({\”preferredPlaybacks\”:\”mp4AvcPlayback\”})”:”https://darkroom-clips.mlb.com/0cb59d17-983a-4c4e-9da3-5b979e114212.mp4″,”type”:”video”,”description”:””,”displayAsVideoGif”:true,”duration”:”00:00:04″,”slug”:”breaking-down-kris-bubic-s-pitches-x4500″,”tags”:[{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”data-visualization”,”title”:”data visualization”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”in-game-data-visualization”,”title”:”In-game data visualization”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”PersonTag”,”slug”:”playerid-663460″,”title”:”Kris Bubic”,”person”:{“__ref”:”Person:663460″},”type”:”player”},{“__typename”:”GameTag”},{“__typename”:”TeamTag”,”slug”:”teamid-118″,”title”:”Kansas City Royals”,”team”:{“__ref”:”Team:118″},”type”:”team”}],”thumbnail”:{“__typename”:”Thumbnail”,”templateUrl”:”https://img.mlbstatic.com/mlb-images/image/upload/{formatInstructions}/mlb/cxda7huurjyjrmpbzb3x”},”title”:”Breaking down Kris Bubic’s pitches”,”relativeSiteUrl”:”/video/breaking-down-kris-bubic-s-pitches-x4500″},{“__typename”:”Markdown”,”content”:”### A new mentality on the mound\n\nNew pitches and better shapes are great, but there’s something else going on here, too.\n\nIn his relief cameo last season, Bubic attacked hitters in a way that he seldom had before. To date, he’s maintained that attack-first mindset as a starting pitcher.\n\n**Bubic’s aggression**\n\n**2020-22:** 50.2% Zone% / 55.7% 1st Pitch Strike% / 10.5% BB% \n**2024-25:** 54.2% Zone% / 62.8% 1st Pitch Strike% / 5.9% BB%\n\nThe mindset paid off for Bubic last summer, when he pitched to a 2.67 ERA with an 11.6 K/9 ratio as a late-inning reliever. While his role has changed, he approaches each inning the same way.”,”type”:”text”},{“__typename”:”Markdown”,”content”:”“Instead of being like, ‘Hey, you’re going to throw six or seven innings today,’ it’s almost like, ‘Hey, go be a reliever for one inning and then do it again, do it again, and do it again.’ Breaking the game into smaller parts has made it a lot easier for me to digest.”\n\nThat’s another way to look at Bubic’s evolution, as a series of smaller parts coalescing — over the span of several years — into the dominant pitcher taking the mound every fifth day.\n\n“All those factors put together allow the long-term outlook to look better than it did those first three years,” Bubic said in April.\n\nThe same goes for his present, too.”,”type”:”text”}],”relativeSiteUrl”:”/news/kris-bubic-statcast-analysis-and-breakdown”,”contentType”:”news”,”subHeadline”:null,”summary”:”Just as they did last year, the Royals are winning on the backs of a stalwart rotation: Entering play on Sunday, Kansas City’s starting pitchers had combined for a 2.63 ERA, the second-best mark in baseball.\nWhat’s surprising, though, is that there’s a new face leading the way.\nKris Bubic,”,”tagline({\”formatString\”:\”none\”})”:null,”tags”:[{“__typename”:”InternalTag”,”slug”:”storytype-article”,”title”:”Article”,”type”:”article”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”apple-news”,”title”:”Apple News”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”ContributorTag”,”slug”:”jared-greenspan”,”title”:”Jared Greenspan”,”type”:”contributor”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”savant”,”title”:”savant”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”player-tracking”,”title”:”Statcast”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TeamTag”,”slug”:”teamid-118″,”type”:”team”,”title”:”Kansas City Royals”,”team”:{“__ref”:”Team:118″}},{“__typename”:”PersonTag”,”slug”:”playerid-663460″,”title”:”Kris Bubic”,”person”:{“__ref”:”Person:663460″},”type”:”player”}],”type”:”story”,”thumbnail”:”https://img.mlbstatic.com/mlb-images/image/upload/{formatInstructions}/v1746330915/mlb/hoow2h7hgp0fajuaofvs”,”title”:”Kris Bubic Statcast analysis and breakdown”},”getHeaderFromForgePath({\”contentSource\”:\”MLB\”,\”headerPath\”:\”/_navs/header/mlb/global-nav\”,\”locale\”:\”en-US\”,\”paletteKey\”:\”mlb-base-palette\”,\”propertiesKey\”:\”mlb-global-properties\”})”:{“__typename”:”Header”,”navigation”:[{“__typename”:”NavItem”,”customPropertiesString”:”align:right;”,”icon”:null,”linkTarget”:null,”linkText”:”MLB.TV”,”linkUrl”:”https://www.mlb.com/tv?&affiliateId=mlbMENUtv”,”placement”:”right”,”visible”:”true”,”subNav”:[{“__typename”:”SubnavColumn”,”title”:null,”navigation”:[{“__typename”:”NavItem”,”placement”:null,”linkText”:”Buy 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